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Seven major events to happen in the global market this week

Wonderful introduction:

A clean and honest man is the happiness of honest people, a prosperous business is the happiness of businessmen, a punishment of evil and traitors is the happiness of chivalrous men, a good character and academic performance is the happiness of students, aiding the poor and helping the poor is the happiness of good people, and planting in spring and harvesting in autumn is the happiness of farmers.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Seven Major Events to Become the Global Market this week". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

"Never peaceful" - even in the middle of summer. This week is full of top macroeconomic events that will shock the market.

1. The trade deadline may cause some tension

The United States and the European Union have reached a trade agreement that follows the US-Japan agreement and impose a 15% tariff on most www.xmserving.commodities. Trade between China and the United States may remain in a truce after these agreements with major countries.

As with other agreements, many details, such as tariffs in specific industries and the procurement of U.S. goods by other countries, are still unclear. This means that existing agreements will face some twists and turns, but these further twists and turns are more likely to happen after this week.

The highly likely news this week is to reach further agreements with other countries, or to impose heavy taxes on U.S. President Trump. The countries worth noting are India and South Korea—two major trading partners that the United States has not yet made progress.

Investors will be delighted with the agreement or delay, but they will suffer if Trump imposes banned tariffs on it. What is a prohibited tariff? The EU and Japan agreed 15%, while Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines reached 19% or 20%. The imposition of tariffs of more than 20% on key trading partners will be worrying.

2. ADP employment data may be considered pessimistic

Wednesday, GMT time 12:15. The largest payroll provider in the United States has released a leading metric point to the official non-farm employment report (NFP). But does the private sector employment report with automatic data processing (ADP) really show something?

The results of the past few releases are extremely pessimistic, especially the most recent one, pointing to employment losses.

I expect investors to be skeptical of any downturn numbers, viewing them as "the boy who shouts the wolf is www.xmserving.coming." Instead, strong results will be seen as bullish signals. The idea may be: ADP is optimistic, NFP will be better.

Anyway, the market impact is expected to be short-lived before the Federal Reserve (Fed).

3. US GDP may show a steady return to growth

Wednesday, GMT time at 12:30. Have the US economic data returned to normal? The GDP in the first quarter of 2025 showed negative growth—this was due to a large amount of imports before tariffs. The role of gold transportation on the US coast is particularly prominent.

Economists expect the second quarter figures to return to normal. The preliminary results have the greatest impact on the market and are expected to show an annualized growth rate of 2.5%, rebounding from -0.5% in the first quarter.

The results of more than 3% will be bullish on stocks and the US dollar (USD) and bearish on gold. Another reading below 2% will have the opposite effect. It is also important to note here that prices may quickly return to pre-release scope given the upcoming Fed decision.

4. The Federal Reserve's decision may pour cold water on multiple interest rate cuts, but some objections may also arise.

On Wednesday, GMT time decided at 18:00 and a press conference was held at 18:30. Will the Fed cut interest rates in September? This is a question investors think about in their July decisions, and the world's most powerful central bank will keep borrowing costs unchanged.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may leave room for September, as there are two inflation reports and several jobs data ahead of that. In addition, the chairman and his colleagues want to see the impact of tariffs on price increases. So far, the impact is minimal, but it may appear soon.

Powell must be cautious when talking about inflation, especially after a fact-check on Trump on Thursday. The relationship between the two is extremely tense.

What about the Fed members nominated during Trump's first term? Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman turned to dove a few months ago, supporting an early rate cut. If both vote for a rate cut, the market could see it as a signal of the next rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and could even cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps).

My basic scenario is that both Bowman and Waller choose to cut interest rates—a rare double objection—to trigger a rebound in the market. However, Powell may pour cold water on some caution and refusal to promise. This will at least temporarily reverse the trend.

5. The Bank of Japan will increase discussions on rate hikes

On Thursday, earlier in the Asian session. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will once again keep borrowing costs unchanged. The Tokyo-based agency has pledged to raise interest rates to curb inflation, but is undergoing a prolonged pause after raising interest rates from the negative range to 0.50%.

In the United States and JapanAnother rate hike appears out of reach ahead before the trade deal was reached last week, giving policymakers some certainty. This may encourage Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuno to signal that a rate hike is www.xmserving.coming, exceeding market expectations.

I expect the Japanese yen (JPY) to strengthen after the meeting, assuming Ueda's rhetoric appears more hawkish.

6. Core PCE may defend the Federal Reserve hawks

Thursday, GMT time at 12:30. The day between the Federal Reserve and non-farm employment data is not quiet. In addition to weekly initial jobless claims data (excluding the time when the NFP survey was conducted), there is a more interesting release.

The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. After several months of downturn, the economic calendar pointed to a 0.3% month-on-month increase in June, accelerating from 0.2% last month.

Faster growth could push annual data away from its long-term downward trend, rebounding towards a central bank target of 2%, and defending the Federal Reserve hawks who fear tariffs could have a negative impact on inflation.

7. Non-farm employment data may challenge artificial intelligence and tariffs again

Friday, GMT time at 12:30. Has artificial intelligence (AI) hurt the labor market? So far, certain positions, such as junior programmers, have been affected, but overall employment remains stable. Has the tough stance on illegal immigration led to an increase in jobs for the local population or weakened the entire labor market? So what about tariffs?

These are still open questions – but the July non-farm employment report may provide some answers. The economic calendar points to the increase of 102K positions, slightly lower than in previous months, but is still growing.

Optimistic results will boost the dollar and put pressure on gold, while signs of weakness will have the opposite effect. What about stocks? www.xmserving.companies need to hire people to sell their products, but they are also worried about high interest rates. I think investors will be more inclined toward strong data than weak ones.

This is one of the busiest week of the year, with not only Trump’s eye-catching www.xmserving.comments, but also a large number of concentrated releases of top economic data. Please be cautious when trading.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Seven Major Things to Happen in the Global Market This Week". It was carefully www.xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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