Improved trade prospects bring positive benefits, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 28

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.07%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.20%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.37%. The German DAX index fell 0.11%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.15%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.24%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.50%.

2. Market news interpretation

Improved trade prospects bring positive benefits, Goldman Sachs raised the target price of the MSCI China Index to 90 points

⑴ Goldman Sachs strategists raised the 12-month target point of the MSCI China Index from 85 points to 90 points. ⑵This means that the index still has 11% potential upside from last Friday's closing price. ⑶ Goldman Sachs believes that improving trade prospects and market liquidity support are the main positive factors supporting this upward adjustment.

The Bank of Japan is expected to remain calm this week. Will the "black swan" of tariffs delay interest rate hikes?

⑴ ANZ Research Department predicts that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged at this week's monetary policy meeting. ⑵Economist Tom Kenny pointed out that political uncertainty surrounding Japan's trade and domestic policies remain high. ⑶He believes that it is unclear how the 15% tariff imposed by the United States on Japanese goods exported to the United States will affect Japan's economy and inflation. ⑷ At the same time, the loss of a majority in the ruling coalition will make the formulation of domestic policies more www.xmserving.complicated. ⑸ Nevertheless, the bank expects the Bank of Japan to raise its fiscal year Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast to reflect the impact of rising food prices. ⑹In addition, considering the tightening of the labor market and rising corporate confidence, Tom Kenny believes that the Bank of Japan still has room for a 25 basis point rate hike in October this year and April next year. ⑺The focus of the market is whether external uncertainty will delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike process.

Behind the calm and tranquil situation of the oil market, undercurrents are surging, and the giants are brewing something. The trading of the Asian fuel oil spot market is light, the spot premium and discounts are not much change, and the overall momentum is insufficient. ⑵ Quotations for extremely low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) have weakened, resulting in a slight decline in premiums and discounts. ⑶The bid gap between buyers and sellers of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) is still large, and the premium and discount remains in the discount state. ⑷ Hi-five spread remained wide at about US$88 per ton, reflecting the weakness in the high-sulphur fuel oil market. ⑸Philipps 66 plans to operate its refinery with a www.xmserving.comprehensive capacity of 90%-95% in the third quarter, which shows that it is optimistic about the future market. ⑹On the other hand, India's crude oil imports fell 4.7% month-on-month to 20.32 million tons, a new low since February, putting pressure on oil prices. ⑺In addition, Venezuelan state-owned oil www.xmserving.company PDVSA is preparing to restart its joint venture, while Qatar threatens to cut off natural gas supply to the EU. ⑻Although the Asian market is calm on the surface, changes in supply and demand and geopolitical factors around the world are quietly affecting the future trend of the oil market.

India's exports are facing a cold winter, and the global economic slowdown may become the "last straw that broke the camel's back"

⑴Indian Ministry of Finance pointed out in its monthly economic report that the global economic slowdown may further curb India's export demand. ⑵ The report stressed that the ongoing uncertainty brought about by Trump's tariff rhetoric may put pressure on India's trade performance in the www.xmserving.coming quarters. ⑶ India's www.xmserving.commodity exports fell to US$35.14 billion in June, a 9% decrease from the previous month, the lowest level since November last year. ⑷ Despite external challenges, the report believes that India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain resilient. ⑸ In addition, the report expects India's inflation rate in fiscal 2025-26 may be lower than the Bank of India's 3.7% forecast, with retail inflation in June falling to its lowest point of 2.1% in more than six years. ⑹ Although the RBB Governor said it had "winned the battle against inflation", it still emphasized that price stability is its core goal. ⑺This series of data shows that although domestic inflation pressures ease, weak external demand is becoming a major risk to the Indian economy.

The "aftermath" of the trade agreement has not yet settled, Romania's GDP may suffer, and the growth rate may be reduced by 0.2%.

⑴Concordia, the largest employer association in Romania, said that the US-EU trade agreement may cause Romania's economic growth to decrease by 0.15% to 0.2%. ⑵ Macroeconomicians of the association pointed out that international institutions expect the euro zone economic growth rate to decrease by 0.3% to 0.4%. ⑶ The reduction in Romania's economic growth is affected by the transmission effect of the euro zone economic slowdown. ⑷ It is worth noting that ConcordIA had expected tariffs in May to lead to a 0.3% reduction in economic output to 0.7%. ⑸ Although this latest forecast has been lowered, it still highlights the possible negative impact of the US-EU trade agreement on the European economy, especially member states like Romania. ⑹The actual impact of the agreement may exceed expectations, and the market needs to pay close attention to subsequent data.

The US-EU trade agreement was implemented, the UK stock market rose "cautiously" and automobile stocks led the rise

⑴ After investors evaluated the impact of the US-EU trade agreement, the major London stock market index closed slightly, the FTSE 100 index rose 0.1%, and the FTSE 250 index rose 0.3%. ⑵ Although the agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods, the market still seeks positive signals from it. ⑶ The automobile and parts sectors led the rise, with an increase of 1.1%, indicating that the market has expectations for the easing of trade tensions. ⑷ However, industrial and mining stocks performed weakly, down 0.9%, affected by lower metal prices. ⑸ GSK shares rose 1.3%, after the www.xmserving.company reached a $500 million drug development agreement with China's Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine. ⑹In addition, after the investment www.xmserving.company Ocean Wilsons Holdings agreed to merge with Hansa Investment, its share price plummeted 10.6%, becoming the biggest loser of the FTSE 250 index. ⑺The market is closely watching the Bank of England's next move, with traders predicting the possibility of a 25 basis point cut on August 7 as high as 86.5%.

The euro zone's capital market has changed drastically, overnight deposits soared, and market liquidity alerts have sounded

⑴ The latest data from the European Central Bank shows that the use of overnight loan tools has surged from 1 million euros the day before to 103 million euros. ⑵ At the same time, the amount of deposits in overnight deposit instruments also increased from 2.6227 trillion euros to 2.6245 trillion euros, indicating that the market liquidity is still abundant. ⑶ This means that the market demand for short-term funds has increased, but most of the funds are still chosen to be deposited in the central bank. ⑷ Although the use of overnight loans has increased significantly, its size is still insignificant www.xmserving.compared to the huge amount of deposits. ⑸ This data reflects that the liquidity structure of the interbank market is undergoing subtle changes. ⑹In the current macroeconomic environment, the market's cautious attitude towards funds still dominates. ⑺ Pay close attention to subsequent data to determine whether this is an early signal of tight market liquidity.

The new trade agreement triggered a partial split within the EU, and Germany and France have very different opinions

⑴ The United States and the EU reached a framework trade agreement, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, successfully avoiding a larger trade war between the two sides. ⑵ This agreement triggered a very different response from EU leaders, indicating serious internal differences. ⑶ Hungarian Prime Minister Orban pointed out bluntly that this is not a real agreement, saying that Trump "eats" European www.xmserving.commission President von der Leyen in the negotiations. ⑷ French Prime Minister Bailu said it was a "sad day" and the alliance succumbed to external pressure, is a betrayal of www.xmserving.common values and interests. ⑸ However, German Chancellor Meltz was optimistic, believing that the agreement successfully avoided trade conflicts that could cause a heavy blow to Germany's export-oriented economy. ⑹ He specifically pointed out that tariffs in the automotive industry have dropped from 27.5% to 15%, nearly halving. ⑺Finnish Prime Minister Orpo and Swedish Trade Minister Dusa both believe that the agreement brings much-needed predictability to the global economy and businesses, although Sweden believes that this may be just the "least bad option". ⑻ Italian Prime Minister Meloni said that the best judgment cannot be made before seeing the details of the agreement. ⑼Irish Trade Minister Harris believes that the agreement provides certainty for businesses, which is crucial for employment, growth and investment.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1659, a drop of 0.71%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EURUSD) fell in the recent intraday trading and broke through the slightly bullish trend line in the short term, which puts the price under strong negative pressure, pushing it to break through the EMA50 support level.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3429, a drop of 0.02%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fluctuated in the last session and closed after a strong bearish wave that used it to break the short-term bullish correction trend and broke through the EMA50, facing strong negative pressure on the price. On the other hand, we noticed positive signals on the (RSI), which helped stabilize the price after reaching the oversold level, trying to get rid of this oversold situation and recover some of the previous losses.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3327.90, a drop of 0.25%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fell in the last intraday trading, erasing early gains achieved by the positive signal on the (RSI), offloading oversold conditions and reaching an exaggerated overbought level, indicating an end to the positive intraday momentum, especially as its trade is ongoing negative pressure below the EMA50, which is affected by the range of bullish channels, limiting previous short-term trading.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 38.033, a drop of 0.32%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fell on the last trading day as its trading below the EMA50 continued to bring negative pressure. PricesThe impact of breaking the bull trend line in the short term puts huge pressure on the upcoming trading, on the other hand, we noticed positive signals (RSI) after reaching oversold levels, which may temporarily support price stability as it requires uninstalling this oversold level.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 66.350, an increase of 1.89%. Before New York, (crude oil) prices rose on the last trading day, trying to regain some of the previous lost ground and unload (RSI) significantly oversold levels, especially as the start of a positive overlap signal that may provide positive stability.

4. Institutional View

UBS: Be prepared for possible market fluctuations

UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office said that the S&P 500 has risen nearly 30% since the concerns caused by US tariff policies reached its peak in April. This reflects the growing belief that the U.S. will reach a www.xmserving.compromise with its major trading partners. Recent data also suggest that the U.S. economy remains resilient, and market sentiment is boosted by top tech www.xmserving.companies continuing to increase capital expenditure on artificial intelligence. UBS also reminded that the sharp rise in recent weeks has reflected many potential positive news and investors should be prepared for possible market volatility in the www.xmserving.coming weeks. While the market will be encouraged by increased U.S.-European trade certainty, U.S. tariff levels remain about six times higher than the general level before the Liberation Day. The economic impact of these tariffs is currently emerging, while uncertainty about their scale, distribution and second-order effects still exist, and the economic impact of tariffs at the industry level may be greater than that at the national level.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Improved trade prospects bring positive benefits. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on July 28" was carefully www.xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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