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Powell poured cold water on expectations of interest rate cuts! US dollar index surges more than 1%
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Powell "spent cold water" to his expectations of interest rate cuts! The US index rose by more than 1%. Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 31, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.77. On Wednesday, the US dollar index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, approaching the 100 integer mark, and finally closed up 1.04% to 99.92, a new high in more than two months, due to strong U.S. economic data and Powell insisted on a wait-and-see stance. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.379%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.951%. Spot gold returned to its decline, falling below the $3270 mark for a time, rebounded slightly at the end of the trading session, and finally closed down 1.55%, closing at $3274.85/ounce, the largest single-day decline in more than a month; spot silver followed gold and finally closed down 2.8% at $37.11/ounce. International crude oil rose for three consecutive days as investors focused on Trump's more urgent ultimatum to Russia and its tariff threat to oil-trading countries. WTI crude oil hit the $70 mark during the session and finally closed up 1.32% to $69.79 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 1.18% to $72.6 per barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$99.77. The dollar received a buy on Wednesday, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the Fed was unlikely to lower interest rates unless the U.S. central bank received solid evidence that inflation would continue to ease rather than rise due to tariffs. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close above resistance at 99.20–99.40. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level 100.40–100.60.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Thursday, gold hovered around 3287.57. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged with a 1.50-9 vote, and gold prices plummeted more than 2% on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was flirting with hawkishness at a press conference, coupled with strong GDP data in the second quarter of 2025 that weighed on gold prices.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Thursday, crude oil trading around 69.79. WTI crude oil rise room has expanded to its highest level in more than a monthHigh level, as traders focus on potential developments in U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for ending the Ukrainian war.
Forex market trading reminder on July 31, 2025
To be determined Bank of Japan announced interest rate resolution
09:30 China's July official manufacturing PMI
14:30 Switzerland's June actual retail sales annual rate
14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference
14:45 France's July CPI monthly rate initial value
15:55 Germany's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
15:55 Germany's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
17:00 Eurozone's June unemployment rate
19:30 US July challenger www.xmserving.companies layoffs
20:00 Germany's July CPI monthly rate initial value
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20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to July 26
20:30 Annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in June
20:30 Monthly rate of personal expenditure in the United States in June
20:30 Quarterly rate of the second quarter labor cost index in the United States
20:30 Monthly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in June
21:45 Chicago PMI in the United States in July
22:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the week from the United States to July 25
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Powell "sprays cold water" to the expectations of interest rate cuts! The US index rose by more than 1%" was carefully www.xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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