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With double support and escort, can the US dollar/CHF break through the suppression?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Double support and escort, can the US dollar/Cherro Franc break through the suppression?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (July 29), the US dollar against the Swiss franc (USD/CHF) continued to rebound, with the exchange rate trading around 0.8050. The recent negotiations between the United States and major trading partners have made progress, and the market risk appetite has rebounded significantly. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate resolution has also become the focus of market attention. With the stabilization of the US dollar and the decline in safe-haven demand in the Swiss franc, the exchange rate showed certain signs of a repaired rebound in the short term.
Brands
Recently, the United States and Europe have finalized a trade agreement and will impose a 15% tariff on most European goods starting from August 1. Although this agreement has increased the cost of some www.xmserving.commodities, the overall market interpretation is that the trade relations are gradually becoming clear, which will help alleviate previous uncertainties.
In addition, according to Reuters, the U.S. president announced on social media on Monday that he would resume negotiations with Cambodia and Thailand, after the two countries ended five-day border frictions. These positive news at the trade level has enhanced the overall attractiveness of the US dollar.
In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its interest rate meeting on Wednesday. The focus of the market will turn to the press conference of the chairman of the Federal Open Market www.xmserving.committee (FOMC), especially whether it suggests a rate cut cycle begins in September. At the same time, the United States will also release the second-quarter PCE inflation data and July non-farm employment data this week, which will further test the resilience of the US economy.
On the other hand, although market risk appetite weakens the Swiss franc's safe-haven demand, the recent Swiss inflation report in June showed that price levels are relatively stable, and the market speculated that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may suspend further monetary easing operations to provide the Swiss franc withA certain bottom support. Overall, the US dollar is supported on the macro side, but the downside space of the Swiss franc is also limited.
Technical:
From the daily chart, USD/CHF has stabilized and rebounded from the low point of 0.7871, and is currently trading around 0.8050, above 0.7976 of the middle track of the Bollinger Band. The upper rail of the Bollinger band is at 0.8065 and the lower rail is at 0.7887. The overall bandwidth narrows, indicating that the volatility has weakened and the market is in the stage of accumulation of momentum.
In the upward process, the exchange rate has approached the key resistance level 0.8100. This position resonates with the Bollinger upper rail and the early intensive trading area, and there is certain technical pressure in the short term. Analysts believe that if it can effectively break through this level, it is expected to further open upward space; pay attention to the 0.8030 and Bollinger middle track at the lower support level. If it falls below, it may retest the low point of 0.7871.
In terms of indicators, the MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are slightly repaired below the zero axis, and the red bar chart gradually enlarged, indicating that the short-term bull momentum has rebounded. However, DIFF and DEA are still in negative areas, and the trend upward trend has not been fully confirmed. The relative strength index (RSI) shows 55.35, which has broken through the neutral range and is in a relatively strong pattern, but there is still room for the overbought area. Overall, the analysis believes that the technical side has shown a moderate rebound in the short term, but the upper resistance is strong, and the trend reversal still needs to be confirmed.
Preview of Market Sentiment
Recently, market sentiment has gradually turned positive due to multiple factors. First, the progress in trade negotiations has reduced uncertainty in global markets, causing a decline in demand for safe-haven, and thus weakened the attractiveness of the Swiss franc. Secondly, the Fed's expectations of maintaining stability and the easing signal that may be released in September provide support for the medium-term outlook of the US dollar.
However, the market has not www.xmserving.completely eliminated the sentiment of caution. Swiss inflation remained stable, which caused market expectations that the Swiss National Bank may delay further easing, which to some extent suppressed the depreciation rate of the Swiss franc. At the same time, if the US PCE and non-farm data this week are lower than expected, market risk appetite may be under pressure again.
Overall, market sentiment is in a state of moderate optimism and prudence, and bull market sentiment has rebounded, but bear market sentiment is still potential and may be triggered by data or news at any time.
Future Outlook
Bules Outlook
Analysts believe that if the exchange rate can effectively break through the 0.8100 resistance level, it is expected to open up further upward space, and the first target may be at the 0.8200 line; if the MACD and RSI indicators strengthen simultaneously by then, the market may form a medium-term technical rebound; in terms of fundamentals, if the Federal Reserve hints that the probability of interest rate cuts in September is reduced, the US dollar is expected to continue to gain support.
Short Outlook
Analysts believe that if the exchange rate encounters resistance and falls around 0.8100, the key support below is 0.8030 and 0.7871; once it falls below 0.7871, a new downward trend may be restarted; if the US is about to announce PCE inflationOr the non-farm employment data is significantly lower than expected, which will weaken the attractiveness of the dollar and allow the Swiss franc to regain safe-haven buying support.
Overall, the analysis believes that the short-term market may maintain a technical rebound, but the medium- and long-term direction still depends on fundamental data and Fed policy signals.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Official Website]: Double support and escort, can the US dollar/Sherfranc break through the suppression?" It is carefully www.xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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