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The continued depreciation of the yen may be just a perfect trap
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xmserving.commentary]: The continued depreciation of the Japanese yen may be just a perfect trap." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (November 6) during the Asia-Europe period, the US dollar fluctuated slightly against the Japanese yen, currently down 0.1% and trading around 153.95. The exchange rate made a sharp bottoming out on Wednesday and then accelerated and stretched in late trading, once reaching a 9-month high.
On Tuesday, due to another verbal warning from Satsuki Yamayama, a Japanese financial expert, the U.S. dollar fell 0.5% against the yen despite the rise in the U.S. dollar index. On Wednesday, the exchange rate extended its decline in early trading and quickly rebounded and then turned red. In late trading, it was affected by the unexpected impact of U.S. ADP data and continued to accelerate its rise, recovering all the losses caused by Japan's official window guidance. It showed resilience in depreciation, as if the yen will continue to depreciate.
This article attempts to find clues about the recent resilience of the yen to depreciation, and attempts to discuss whether the yen will continue to depreciate.
The Bank of Japan is waiting for key data to support interest rate hikes
The Bank of Japan hopes to see wage growth momentum before raising interest rates, but the 1.4% year-on-year decline in September wage income data released today may not meet the target. With the political buffer space that can wait, an interest rate hike in December is by no means a certainty.
In September, Japan's real wages fell year-on-year for the ninth consecutive month. Ueda and Oyuki made it clear that they hope to see clear growth momentum in the early stages of wage negotiations in the spring of 2026. This statement shows that the Bank of Japan is not in a hurry to act, implying that it will need to wait until the first quarter of next year before the central bank can make a definitive assessment.
Ueda's cautious stance is reasonable - the annual substantial wage increase agreements reached by the union in the past two years have not yet had a transmission effect in the wider economy.
Under the inflationary environment, Japanese wages continue to weaken, causing the market to question whether the Bank of Japan can generate sustainable demand-driven inflationary pressure..
The upcoming speeches of Ueda and the male bank governor may become a key variable, especially after Tokyo’s CPI unexpectedly rose last month. However, with political leaders calling for cautious policy and weak wage growth, the Bank of Japan has no immediate pressure to raise interest rates even if inflation continues to deviate from its target.
However, the Bank of Japan issued a special announcement last week, announcing that Kazuo Ueda will give a speech on December 1, which is only a few days away from the next Tokyo CPI report. This arrangement deserves special attention. At the same time, interest rate futures show that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates from January to April next year will rise rapidly.
Japan’s real wages fell again
Japan’s real wages fell again in September, falling year-on-year for the ninth consecutive month. The core reason is that inflation growth continues to outperform wage growth.
Although nominal cash income increased by 1.9% year-on-year, real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 1.4%, highlighting the pressure on household purchasing power.
Consumption is the core pillar of the Japanese economy, and the continued shrinking of real income is still the main constraint for the Bank of Japan to achieve demand-driven inflation.
This time window may provide the central bank with room to operate, which can be used to warm up the market for potential policy adjustments in December, especially after the core and overall inflation data in the last Tokyo CPI report rose significantly beyond expectations.
Judging from the current market pricing, the swap market implies a 50% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 19 meeting. In fact, the outcome is regarded as a half-win game.
By March next year when the spring salary negotiations are fully advanced, the market has basically fully digested the expectation of a www.xmserving.complete interest rate hike.
The risk of foreign exchange market intervention remains controllable
Although Ueda's speech will be a key event in the follow-up, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's statement this week further strengthened the market perception that "the pressure for policy action by the Bank of Japan will be moderate."
Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki reiterated on Tuesday that as the yen fell to an eight-month low near 154.50 per dollar, the government will closely monitor currency market fluctuations with a high sense of urgency. His latest statement is highly consistent with his remarks last Friday, indicating that Tokyo's verbal warning may be the ultimate measure for now.
But Takaichi Sanae made it clear that Japan is only halfway to achieving sustainable inflation supported by wage growth, a signal that it does not want to push the central bank to tighten policy prematurely.
This stance is consistent with her image as a "policy dove following the style of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe", implying that although inflation is significantly higher than the Bank of Japan's 2% policy target, she is unwilling to risk weakening economic growth or pushing the yen to excessive strength.
His dovish stance limits the credibility of the Finance Minister's warning about the trend of the yen - after all, the U.S. dollar against the yen has always been a typical interest rate differential-driven transaction.
Unless there is fundamental support - whether it is the Bank of Japan turning hawkish and pushing up local bond yields, or U.S. Treasury yields showing a substantial decline - the government requiresAny currency market intervention measures taken by the Bank of Japan are likely to have little effect.
Technical analysis:
Currently, the U.S. dollar against the yen is still on the upper track of the upward channel, but the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the yen still fell on Tuesday despite the rise of the U.S. dollar index, which left a profound impact on the market. It means that the market's enthusiasm for shorting the yen has significantly decreased, and at the same time, some funds have begun to buy long yen on dips.
At present, the exchange rate is still supported by the upper track of the channel and continues to close above the downward trend line. However, in the face of the US dollar may reach a stage high in the near future, and as the Japanese yen interest rate hike progresses, the risk of adjustment of the US dollar against the yen is increasing day by day, and the possibility of this being the top area is also increasing.
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