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Fed officials continue to express caution! Gold rides a "roller coaster"

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: Federal Reserve officials continue to express caution! Gold is riding a "roller coaster"". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On November 7, spot gold was trading around US$3,984 per ounce. The price of gold once approached US$4,020 per ounce on Thursday. Benefiting from the weakening of the US dollar and the rebound in safe-haven demand, the Trump administration The government added copper, coal, and silver to the list of critical minerals, exacerbating concerns; U.S. crude oil traded around $59.72 per barrel. Oil prices continued their decline on Thursday, recording monthly declines for the third consecutive month. The market continues to be under the dual pressure of oversupply and weak demand.

The U.S. dollar continued its decline against the euro and Swiss franc on Thursday, as weak labor market data strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again this year. A report from global employment agency Challenger shows that the number of U.S. www.xmserving.companies planning to lay off soared to 153,074 in October, a year-on-year surge of 183%, setting a record for the same period in 22 years.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.42% to 99.70, and the euro rose to $1.1547 against the U.S. dollar. Antonio Ruggiero, foreign exchange strategist at Convera, said that the lack of data after the government shutdown caused the market to be overly optimistic, and the release of layoff data immediately triggered panic selling among investors. The interest rate futures market shows that traders' expectations for a rate cut in December have risen to 69%.

After the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, the pound bucked the trend and rose 0.3% to $1.3088. Market attention has now turned to the budget proposal to be announced by Finance Minister Reeves on November 26, and the tax increases that may be included in it have attracted much attention. Although the central bank is on hold, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the pound will still face downward pressure in the medium to long term.

Norway's central bank announced on the same day that it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.0%, in line with market expectations. The Norwegian krone strengthened, rising 0.36% against the dollar, after the bank said further policy easing was possible in the www.xmserving.coming year.

European Market

Retail sales in the Eurozone were disappointing in September, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2% growth. The decline was mainly due to weaker non-food spending, which fell -0.2%, and motor fuel sales, which fell sharply -1.0%. Meanwhile, sales of food, beverages and tobacco remained unchanged.

Across the EU, retail sales edged up 0.1% on the month, masking different trends across member states. Lithuania (-1.1%), Latvia and Slovenia (-0.7%) and Italy (-0.6%) experienced the largest declines, while strong rebounds were recorded in Luxembourg and Malta (+1.7%), as well as Estonia (+1.5%) and Slovakia (+1.4%).

As expected, the Bank of England held Bank Rate steady at 4.00% today, but the 5-4 split in the vote showed continued pressure within the Monetary Policy www.xmserving.committee to continue easing policy. Premier Andrew Bailey and four others - Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill - voted to maintain the current rates. Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor support a 25 basis point rate cut. The close decision highlighted a deeply divided www.xmserving.committee as policymakers weigh the trade-offs between deflationary progress and weak demand.

The Bank of England acknowledged in an accompanying statement that headline CPI inflation had peaked, while "progress towards underlying deflation continues". The bank noted that the risk of persistent inflation has diminished, while the threat of weak demand has become more pronounced - signaling a clear shift towards a more balanced risk assessment.

The updated forecast paints a mixed picture. The Bank of England currently expects GDP growth of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (just below 1.5%), maintaining the same pace in 2026, and then recovering slightly to 1.7% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028. .

In terms of inflation, the outlook remains essentially unchanged: CPI is expected to be 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, falling to 2.5% in 2026, to 2.0% in 2027, and to rise slightly to 2.1% in 2028. The forecasts mean the BoE expects inflation to remain near target over the medium term, providing room for gradual easing once confidence in deflation deepens.

Market implied interest rates show that investors expect bank interest rates toIt will fall to 3.9% at the end of the year, to 3.5% in 2026-27 and to 3.6% in 2028.

U.S. market

St. Louis Fed President Mussallem said overnight that this year's interest rate cuts are "appropriate" but warned that policymakers must remain cautious about inflation risks. Speaking at an event, he emphasized the need to "support above-target inflation while continuing to provide some insurance to the employment sector," suggesting that while an easing cycle can help stabilize growth, vigilance is still needed as inflation remains above 2%.

Mussallem described the current monetary environment as "between moderately restrictive and neutral," noting that financial conditions are now close to neutral and "fairly supportive of economic activity and the labor market."

On inflation drivers, Mussallem highlighted U.S. trade tariffs as a lingering source of upward pressure on prices, but said their impact had so far been muted by corporate pricing restrictions. He expects this impact to dissipate in the second half of 2026, paving the way for inflation to gradually return to the 2% target.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack struck a distinctly hawkish tone overnight, warning that monetary policy remains "barely restrictive" after last week's rate cut. She remains concerned about high inflation and believes policy should continue to "lean toward it." She reiterated her opposition to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%.

Hamaker said policy should remain "moderately restrictive" to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target "in a timely manner" while minimizing employment risks. She forecast inflation would approach 3% by the end of the year, remain high through 2026, and then gradually fall back to target.

On labor, Hammack said she wouldn't put high odds on a recession, although sluggish hiring could indicate "greater vulnerability."

Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsbee expressed concern that ongoing data outages caused by the government shutdown could hinder the Fed's ability to accurately judge inflation. Speaking on www.xmserving.comBC, he said the lack of recent data made him "even more uneasy" about continuing to cut rates.

“If there is a problem on the inflation front, it will be quite a while before we see that,” he warned.

Even so, Goolsby clarified that he remains broadly dovish over the medium term, saying he is "not hawkish on rates" and expects long-term neutral rates to be "somewhat below" current policy levels.

On the economic front, Goolsby said the labor market continues to show a "moderate cooling" and described the situation as consistent with a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp adjustment.

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