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The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates unchanged and its hawkish stance exceeds expectations. When will the Australian dollar's decline end?

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates unchanged, the hawkish stance exceeds expectations, when will the Australian dollar's decline end?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its November policy meeting, but its stance is by no means dovish. The latest forecasts show inflation will remain above target for many years, with unemployment barely rising and economic growth remaining solid - albeit with smaller interest rate cuts than previously expected.

The market has lowered its easing expectations. On Tuesday (November 4), the Australian dollar fluctuated downwards against the US dollar, with a decrease of about 0.31%. The Australian dollar has fallen against the US dollar for five consecutive trading days. Since the momentum signal is neutral, price action will determine the next move.

RBA Chairman Bullock expressed caution at the press conference after the interest rate meeting, emphasizing that there is no need to consider policy easing at this meeting.

Bullock pointed out that policymakers are not considering cutting interest rates and that annual core inflation rates continuing to be above 3% are not ideal. She added that the meeting focused on the policy outlook of keeping interest rates unchanged and stressed the need to remain cautious.

Data released by the Melbourne Institute on Monday showed that the TD-MI inflation indicator rose by 0.3% month-on-month in October, which was slightly slower than the 0.4% increase in September, but it has climbed for the second consecutive month. The annual inflation gauge edged up from 3.0% to 3.1% over the same period.

Building permit data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics increased significantly by 12.0% month-on-month, far exceeding market expectations of 5.5%, and reversing the 3.6% decline in August. However, ANZ Bank's recruitment advertising volume fell by 2.2% month-on-month in October, the fourth consecutive month of decline. The previous value was revised to a decrease of 3.5%.

Interest rates may have hit bottom, the RBA outlook reshapes market pricing

AustraliaAt its November interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, as widely expected. However, this resolution is anything but dovish. Although the bank believes that last week's explosive third-quarter inflation data was partly due to temporary factors, its latest forecast shows that core inflation will not return to the mid-point of the 2-3% target range until the end of 2027. This indicates that the last interest rate cut in this interest rate hike cycle may have been www.xmserving.completed.

Since this meeting coincides with the Reserve Bank of Australia updating its economic forecasts, its statement focused heavily on revisions to the outlook for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation. The updated key forecasts are shown in the table below: Although it assumes fewer interest rate cuts than previously, the latest outlook still shows that inflation will continue to be above target in the www.xmserving.coming years, unemployment will rise only slightly, and economic growth will remain solid.

Regarding the third quarter inflation data released last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia admitted that it was "significantly higher" than its previous forecast, but emphasized that "part of the increase in core inflation... stems from temporary factors." The market initially interpreted this as a dovish signal, but the RBA's dovish stance only ended there.

Although it pointed out that temporary factors have pushed up inflation, its updated core inflation forecast shows that it will not return to the 2.5% policy target until the end of 2027, which is a significant deviation from the outlook three months ago. Crucially, this forecast is based on two fewer interest rate cuts than previously - a substantial hawkish shift that would have made it www.xmserving.comfortable to predict inflation back to the mid-target or even lower.

Even if the number of interest rate cuts is reduced, the Reserve Bank of Australia still insists that the unemployment rate will not worsen significantly, anchoring its long-term forecast at 4.4% (0.1 percentage point lower than the current level of 4.5%). Its growth forecasts also remain strong, with short-term expectations even being revised upwards, and only minor adjustments in other periods. While it could have warned that a "slightly restrictive policy environment could dampen growth", the RBA chose to avoid such language - clearly going against its dovish stance.

Summary of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision

The latest forecast from the Reserve Bank of Australia shows that due to higher-than-expected growth in consumer demand and house prices, the core inflation rate will remain stubbornly above the target range until mid-2026, which seems to limit the space for further interest rate cuts.

In its quarterly monetary policy statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia said that recent data, including strong economic growth, stubborn inflation and a still tight labor market, indicate that the capacity space in the economy is more limited than previously expected.

The RBA said: "These indicators reflect a mixed picture in financial conditions, consistent with the current policy rate being close to the neutral forecast level - in fact, the cash rate is now below the core forecast range of the neutral rate in some models."

The core inflation indicator that the RBA pays close attention to, the trimmed average inflation rate is expected to accelerate from the current 3% to 3.2% by the end of the year. This forecast is significantly higher than the previous expectation of "maintaining 2.6% in the next few years".

The core inflation rate is not expected to fall back to Australia until the second half of 2026.The European Central Bank’s target range is 2%-3%, and it will not drop to 2.6% by the end of 2027.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has judged that the labor market has eased slightly, but believes that there is still a certain degree of tension. The Reserve Bank of Australia does not expect the job market to loosen further significantly, and the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.4% in the next two years after rising sharply to 4.5% in September.

Employment growth is expected to be revised down to an annual rate of 1.1% by the middle of next year, while household consumption is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate of 2.1%.

The growth rate of residential construction was significantly revised up to an annualized growth rate of 4.8% at the end of this year, after multiple interest rate cuts drove home prices to soar to record highs.

The Reserve Bank of Australia said that given that the global economy is still strong and the above factors are www.xmserving.combined, its economic growth forecast for next year and beyond will not change much. The country's economy is expected to achieve trend growth of about 2%.

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar was affected by the recent strength of the U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar index once hit a nearly three-month high of 100.03 on Tuesday, and then fluctuated downwards due to pressure from high selling. It is now down about 0.09%, trading around 99.77, still at a high level, after the U.S. dollar index rose for four consecutive trading days.

According to the CMEFedWatch tool, federal funds futures traders currently expect a 65% probability of a rate cut in December, a significant drop from 94% a week ago.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 from 49.1 in September, lower than market expectations of 49.5.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a post-meeting press conference last week that another interest rate cut in December is far from a foregone conclusion, and stressed that policymakers may need to adopt a wait-and-see approach until official data resumes.

The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 last week to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4.0%. The decision was divided - Governor Stephen Millan supported a larger 50 basis point rate cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid advocated keeping rates on hold.

The ongoing government shutdown keeps the market cautious, which may exacerbate concerns about the U.S. economy. As Congress reaches a deadlock over the Republican-backed appropriation bill, the U.S. government shutdown has now entered its 35th day and may become the longest shutdown in history, with no sign of resolution in the short term.

According to CBS News, U.S. President Trump plans to block the output of Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology. The remarks may reignite trade tensions, which have just shown signs of easing after the APEC summit in South Korea.

Australia’s trimmed average CPI in the third quarter increased by 1.0% quarterly and 3.0% annually, higher than market expectations of 0.8% and 2.7% respectively. The monthly consumer price index in August jumped to an annual rate of 3.5%, which was not only higher than the previous value of 3.0%, but also exceeded market expectations of 3.1%.

Australia’s third quarter inflation and August CPI data exceeded expectations across the board, lowering market expectations for a recent interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The Australian dollar is under pressure and price momentum is showing weakness

Technical analysis on the daily chart shows that the Australian dollar is trading sideways against the US dollar in a rectangular consolidation pattern. The price recently fell below the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA, 0.6535), suggesting that short-term price momentum has weakened.

On the downside, the key support is at the psychological level of 0.6500. If there is an effective break below this level, the exchange rate may test the lower track of the rectangular range near 0.6460, and then test the five-month low of 0.6414.

On the upside, recent resistance is at the 9-day exponential moving average at 0.6535. If it can break through this resistance, it will strengthen the short-term bullish momentum and push the Australian dollar against the US dollar to test the important mark of 0.6600, and then test the upper rail of the rectangular range near 0.6630. An effective breakout of the rectangular consolidation pattern will release a bullish signal and lay the foundation for the exchange rate to test the 13-month high of 0.6706 set on September 17.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates unchanged, the hawkish stance exceeds expectations, when will the Australian dollar's decline end?", which was carefully www.xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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