Focusing on non-farm data, Trump tariff deadlines approach, safe-haven demand boosts gold prices

Basic news

On Friday (August 1, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,291.40/ounce, and gold prices rose on Thursday, as tariff uncertainty continued to exist before the deadline set by US President Trump to end negotiations on August 1, and traders turned to safe-haven assets; U.S. crude oil trading was around $69.40/barrel, oil prices fell on Thursday, as tariff concerns increased and crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, and the early rise failed to continue. Investors digested the latest round of corporate financial reports and economic data, and waited for Amazon and Apple to announce their results after the market.

Microsoft shares rose 3.5% after the www.xmserving.company released a strong financial report and briefly broke the threshold of $4 trillion in market value, becoming the second listed www.xmserving.company to hit this milestone after Nvidia.

MetaPlatforms rose 11.3% to close at $773.44, a record high as its core advertising business achieved growth driven by artificial intelligence and released bullish revenue expectations.

However, other AI-related www.xmserving.companies performed weakly during the session. Chipmaker Broadcom fell 2.9% and Nvidia fell 0.8%, which dragged down the PHLX semiconductor index. The chip index fell 3.1%, the biggest single-day drop since April 16.

Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist at F.L.Putnam Investment Management, said: "From today's market trend, there are ups and downs, and there are several technology www.xmserving.companies, such as many semiconductor-related stocks and semiconductor capital equipment," said Ellen Hazen.The performance of stocks is quite bad. Of course, Microsoft's performance is also quite good, and Amazon and Meta are the same, and they perform very well. "

Of the 297 www.xmserving.companies in the S&P 500 that have reported financial results as of Thursday morning, 80.8% exceeded analyst expectations, while the percentage exceeded expectations in the past four quarters was 76%. After the close, Amazon fell 2.6% in after-hours trading after quarterly financial results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.74% to 44,130.98 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6,339.39 points; and the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 21,122.45 points.

The S&P 500 rose as much as 1% earlier. The Nasdaq rose 1.5%. However, the Nasdaq has not seen a 1% volatility since July 3, while the S&P 500 last recorded a one-day 1% volatility on June 24.

Early released economic data by the U.S. Department of www.xmserving.commerce showed inflation rebounded in June, with new tariffs pushing up prices, raising expectations that price pressures could intensify in the www.xmserving.coming months, while the number of first-time unemployment claims last week showed the labor market remained stable.

Investors will now focus on Friday's non-farm jobs report and an imminent tariff deadline as U.S. President Trump is expected to issue higher final tax rates for countries that have not yet reached a deal, although Mexico received a 90-day tariff suspension.

U.S. stocks began to fall sharply after Trump announced a series of big tariff measures in early April, and then rebounded as a deal with many trading partners on tariff levels.

In July, the S&P 500 rose 2.17%, the Nasdaq rose 3.7%, and the Dow rose 0.08%. All three major stock indexes rose monthly for the third consecutive month.

The White House said that Trump sent a letter to the CEOs of 17 major pharmaceutical www.xmserving.companies urging immediate action to reduce the cost of prescription drugs for Americans, and pharmaceutical stocks also weakened since. The New York Stock Exchange Arca Pharmaceuticals Index fell 2.9%, its biggest drop since May 14

Gold market

Gold prices rose Thursday as tariff uncertainty persisted before the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump to end negotiations on August 1, and traders turned to safe-haven assets.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3294.56 per ounce, up more than 1% earlier. U.S. gold futures settlement price fell 0.1% to $3348.6. Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at ZanerMetals, said: "As the August 1 deadline approaches, we see a rise in trade uncertainty, and today only has a small amount of safe-haven buying reappeared. ”

SpecialTrump said he had agreed to extend the existing trade deal with Mexico for 90 days and continue negotiations during this period with the aim of signing a new deal.

Trump announced a series of tariff measures on Wednesday, including imposing tariffs on imported products from Brazil and South Korea. Inflation rose in June as import tariffs began to push up costs of some www.xmserving.commodities. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in June, and the May data was revised up to 0.2%.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, and Chairman Powell's speech after the decision was announced dispelled hopes for a rate cut in September.

Investors are currently awaiting U.S. nonfarm jobs data released on Friday to find more clues about the Fed's interest rate path.

Spot silver fell 1.4% to $36.61 an ounce, its lowest level since July 7. Platinum fell 2.1% to $1,285.20, and fell to its lowest level since June 24 intraday. Palladium fell about 2% to $1,181.49, hitting a new low in more than two weeks intraday.

Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at KitcoMetals, said, "It's not surprising if there is a strong selling pressure in the silver futures market, partly due to the joint selling caused by a sharp decline in copper markets.

Oil market

Oil prices fell on Thursday, with U.S. President Trump's August 1 tariff deadline looming, and investors are paying attention to uncertainty around countries that have not yet reached a trade deal with the United States.

September Brent crude oil futures due Thursday fell at $72.53 per barrel, a drop of 0.97%. U.S. crude oil futures settled at $69.26, a drop of 1. 06%. U.S. crude oil futures fell more than $1 earlier.

The White House said Thursday that countries that have not yet reached a trade agreement or have received a Trump administration tariff letter will receive a U.S. notice on trade terms before the end of the day. The U.S. has reached an agreement with two-thirds of its top 18 trading partners.

Trump said he and Mexican President Shinbaum agreed to extend the existing trade agreement between the two countries by 90 days and continue negotiations during this period to sign a new agreement.

Trump posted on social media: "Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs and 50% steel, aluminum and copper tariffs. In addition, Mexico has agreed to immediately terminate its numerous non-tariff trade barriers. ”

AngainCapital partner John Kilduff said the news of the extension of the agreement puts pressure on crude oil futures. “Overall, tariffs are negative for future oil demand, and this situation in Mexico is just dragging the problem back. ”

U.S. crude oil production hit 13.49 million barrels in MayA record high for the day. The EIA announced on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 7.7 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels in the week ending July 25, affected by a decline in exports. Analysts previously expected inventory to drop by 1.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels, a forecast of 600,000 barrels.

FujitomiSecurities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa said, "U.S. stock data show unexpected increases in crude oil stocks, but gasoline stocks have fallen more than expected, supporting people's perceptions of strong demand in the driving season, and the report has had a neutral impact on the oil market."

Foreign market

The dollar will record its first-month gains against major currencies on Thursday, supported by easing trade tensions and a U.S. economic recovery.

The US dollar rose against the yen, setting its highest level since May 28. It rose about 5% in July, the largest single-month increase since December 2024. It was last traded at 150.765, up 0.83%.

The Bank of Japan held short-term interest rates unchanged by a unanimous vote on Thursday, a move that was widely expected by the market. The bank also raised inflation expectations in the www.xmserving.coming years.

After that, the Federal Reserve kept U.S. interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, ignoring President Trump's continued call for lowering borrowing costs. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also said he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates.

The resilience of the hawkish Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy has supported the dollar exchange rate, and uncertainty over Trump's chaotic tariffs has eased after a series of trade deals.

The US dollar index rose 0.16% to 99.949 points after rising nearly 1% in the previous trading day. The index recorded its first-month increase in 2025.

MonexUSA trading director Juan Perez said: "There is conflict and friction between what the Fed is seeing and its decisions, and the actions many in the White House and the stock market want the Fed to take. If we www.xmserving.completely abandon the hawkish tone, hawkish stance and hawkish press conferences, the dollar is reasonable and it does rise. But today, the dollar has hit the brakes again due to friction between the Fed and the White House."

Data showed that the number of new Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, indicating that the U.S. labor market remained stable.

The euro became one of the biggest victims of the dollar's strengthening this month as investors retreated bets made early in the year based on the possibility of better opportunities for European markets.

The euro rose 0.19% to $1.1426 in late trading, hitting a seven-week low on Wednesday, and the euro will fall nearly 3% this month.

Jane Foley, strategist at Rabobank, said I think there is excessive optimism in the euro price. And I think this sentiment has fallen back this week. www.xmserving.comments about the EU's concessions to the United States on this trade deal areMany, this is a realistic sobering agent for Europeans.

The US dollar fell 0.31% against the Swiss franc to 0.812 Swiss francs, but is expected to rise 2.36% this month.

The EU agreed on Sunday that the U.S. imposes a 15% tariff on goods exported to the U.S., which eliminates a lot of uncertainty.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also said that the U.S.-Japan trade agreement reduces uncertainty in the outlook and raises the possibility that Japan will last for a 2% inflation target, which is a prerequisite for further interest rate hikes.

The new U.S. trade deal includes an agreement with South Korea, where Trump said Wednesday that South Korea's exports to the U.S. would be subject to a 15% tariff. This is lower than 25% of the threat, and the won strengthened due to this news, and the late trading session was 1395.21 won against 1 USD.

Trump also imposed 50% tariffs on most Brazilian goods on Wednesday and said the United States is still negotiating with India. But he gave Mexico a 90-day tariff respite before Friday's agreement deadline.

Goldman Sachs S. StuartJenkins-led analysts wrote in an investor note that, however, we still expect that even if some bilateral statements (particularly the statement about the EU) may have catalyzed the striking dollar rebound so far this week, the tariff rates announced and codified will eventually prove to be more detrimental to the dollar. "

International News

The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals raised sharp questions, and most of Trump's tariffs face severe legal tests

The legality of Trump's widespread global tariffs has been tested. A US federal appeals court held a hearing on Thursday, and the next day, higher tariffs against many countries will take effect. A panel of 11 judges took turns to question a senior U.S. Department of Justice official, the Trump administration's claim that the U.S. continued trade deficit constitutes a national emergency, allowing the president to bypass Congress and impose tariffs on many countries around the world. At the hearing, Brett Shumate, head of the Civil Division of the U.S. Department of Justice, said at the hearing that Trump's tariff policy is aimed at dealing with "our expanding trade deficit brings The consequences, and allow the president to “pressure on other countries.” He added that Trump determined that the trade deficit has soared to a “cutting point.” The Trump team led a rare earth meeting last week to provide minimum price guarantees and financial support. Sources said senior White House officials told a group of rare earth www.xmserving.companies last week that the government is planning to adopt strategies during the pandemic to drive production of key minerals in the U.S. by providing minimum price guarantees for its products. The meeting, which was not previously reported publicly, was led by White House trade adviser Navarro and National Security Council official Copley, who is in charge of supply chain strategy. The participants included 10 rare earth www.xmserving.companies, as well as tech giants such as Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft and Corning. Sources saidThe two officials said at the meeting that the minimum rare earth price guarantee provided to MPMaterials was "not a one-time move" earlier this month as part of a multi-billion dollar investment in the Pentagon, and a similar agreement is being advanced. In addition to the minimum price guarantee, officials also advised attending businesses to use existing government financial support, including billions of dollars worth of incentives in the Trump Tax and Spending Act passed on July 4, sources said.

$200 million Trump and his donors will renovate the White House out of their own pocket

According to Politico, the White House will carry out a massive renovation of its eastern wing, which is Trump's latest construction project for the executive residence. White House Press Secretary Levitt announced Thursday that construction will begin in September a White House State Banquet Hall with about 90,000 square feet, with a capacity of 650 people. According to information from the White House website, Trump and other "patriotic donors" will pay for the $200 million renovation project. Levitt said the East Wing will also undergo a "modernization" and that all office areas, including the First Lady's office, will be temporarily relocated during construction. This is the latest and most expensive one of the series of White House renovations recently during Trump's tenure. Levitt said the project is expected to be www.xmserving.completed before the end of Trump's term.

Trump wrote to 17 pharmaceutical giants around the world urging them to sharply cut US drug prices

U.S. President Trump sent letters to 17 largest pharmaceutical www.xmserving.companies in the world, including Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and Pfizer, urging it to cut US new drug prices to the lowest level paid by other specific countries. Trump asked www.xmserving.companies to immediately lower the prices of existing drugs charged to Medicaid and ensure that future drugs will be priced at the same price as overseas. He said the U.S. government will work with them to ensure that overseas prices are consistent with domestic prices. Any gains that businesses get from price increases in Europe and elsewhere must be returned to the United States to reduce domestic costs. Trump also asked pharmaceutical www.xmserving.companies to establish a direct-to-consumer purchasing mechanism for high-selling drugs, so that consumers can directly purchase drugs at discounted prices obtained by third-party insurance www.xmserving.companies.

Brazil President: Whether the United States wants to fight a political war or talk about trade, it is with it.

The US government has previously threatened to impose high tariffs on trading partners who have failed to reach a trade agreement with the United States starting from August 1. Now that the deadline is approaching, Brazil and India have said they will not succumb to the pressure from the United States and will take all necessary measures to safeguard national interests. Previously, the United States announced a 50% tariff on goods imported from Brazil starting from August 1. On July 30, the New York Times published an interview with Brazilian President Lula. Lula said he had tried to contact US President Trump, but the other party had no intention of www.xmserving.communicating on tariff issues. Lula said that the U.S. tariff threat has made Brazil "worry" rather than "fear" and he will not succumb to the U.S. decision, whether the U.S. wants to fight a political war or want toBrazil is always with trade, but the United States should not confuse political issues with trade issues.

NVIDIA responded to the chip "backdoor" problem late at night

Late at night on July 31, in response to the fact that NVIDIA's www.xmserving.computing power chips were exposed to have serious security problems, NVIDIA responded: "Cybersecurity is crucial to us. NVIDIA's chips do not have a 'backdoor' and will not allow anyone to remotely access or control these chips."

Domestic News

Foreign trade data in many places has gone upward curve

In the first half of this year, many "major foreign trade provinces" delivered outstanding results, playing an important role in stabilizing the basic foreign trade; the growth rate of foreign trade in many central and western provinces is higher than the national growth rate, and development potential has been further released... In the first half of this year, foreign trade data in most provinces has www.xmserving.come out of a clear "upward line". Experts believe that promoting steady improvement of foreign trade is still a key task for all provinces to pay attention to. It is expected that the policy of stabilizing foreign trade will be further strengthened in the second half of the year, and financing support policies for foreign trade www.xmserving.companies that have been hit hard are expected to be introduced. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in the first half of the year, imports and exports of 18 provinces in the central and western regions were 3.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, 8.3 percentage points higher than the overall national average; the proportion increased by 1.3 percentage points to 18.1%.

my country plans to issue regulations to protect the basic rights and interests of over-age workers

The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued the "Interim Regulations on the Protection of Basic Rights and Interests of Over-age Workers (Draft for Public www.xmserving.comments)" on July 31, and will publicly solicit opinions from the public from now until August 31. The draft for soliciting opinions clearly defines the content of the protection of basic rights and interests of over-age workers, and proposes to strengthen the protection of basic rights and interests of over-age workers such as labor remuneration, rest and leave, labor safety and hygiene, and work-related injury protection, and open up channels for dispute handling. Over-age workers can safeguard their legitimate rights and interests through labor dispute mediation and arbitration, prosecutions with the people's courts, and www.xmserving.complain to the human resources and social security department.

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