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ADP encounters "aesthetic fatigue" in the market? 103,000 jobs only triggered a small fluctuation

Wonderful introduction:

Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: ADP encounters market "aesthetic fatigue"? 103,000 jobs only cause slight fluctuations." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday (July 30), at 20:15 Beijing time, the US ADP National Employment Report was released as scheduled, igniting another round of fluctuations in the financial market. According to the latest data, the private sector in the United States added 104,000 new jobs in July, significantly higher than the market expectations of 75,000, reversing the decline of 23,000 people after the correction in June. Although the data is eye-catching and shows the resilience of the labor market, the overall slowdown still exists. Coupled with the economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric, market sentiment is shaking between optimism and prudence. After the data was released, the US dollar index rose in the short term, and spot gold was under slight pressure, and investors quickly adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This article will conduct in-depth analysis of the market reaction after the release of ADP data, and www.xmserving.combine the interpretations of institutions and retail traders to explore its far-reaching impact on the US dollar index, spot gold and the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts.

Instant market reaction: The US dollar surged in the short term, and gold was under pressure and downward

After the ADP employment report was released, the financial market responded quickly. The US dollar index (DXY) jumped about 15 points in the short term, hitting a high of 99.0949, reflecting the market's brief confidence in the resilience of the US economy. In contrast, spot gold prices fell slightly by about $3 to around $3,220 per ounce, showing the direct suppression effect of the dollar strengthening on gold. US stock futures performed smoothly, while S&P 500 futures rose slightly after the data was released, maintaining a high fluctuation, indicating that the market is more restrained in digesting economic data. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed slightly to 4.45%, reflecting a subtle adjustment of investors' interest rate expectations.

From the historical trend, the US dollar index is passingIn the past month, we have repeatedly fought around the 99.00 mark, and have been under pressure recently due to tariff remarks and risk aversion caused by geopolitical factors (such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine). The performance of ADP data beyond expectations provides short-term support for the US dollar, but its sustainability still needs to be observed. At the same time, spot gold broke through $3,300/ounce in early July due to safe-haven demand and weak US dollar, but against the backdrop of the recent rebound in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, the price fell back to the volatility range of $3,200-3,250/ounce. Market expectations before the ADP data were released were relatively conservative, and it was generally believed that employment growth would slow to 75,000 people. The data exceeded expectations and directly broke this assumption, pushing up the US dollar and suppressing the safe-haven attractiveness of gold.

Instant responses show that institutions and retail traders have differences in their interpretation of data. The agency pointed out that the ADP data recorded an increase of 104,000, a significant rebound from the previous value of -33,000. www.xmserving.combined with the strong performance of GDP growth of 2.4% in the second quarter, it implies that the US economy is still resilient and may weaken expectations for a September interest rate cut in the short term. Retail traders emphasized that the data "confirmed the labor market slowing trend", believing that although the ADP data exceeded expectations, the signal of weak overall employment market has not changed, which may reserve room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. This divergence reflects the market's www.xmserving.complex mentality when interpreting short-term positives and long-term trends.

Slight adjustments to the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts

The beyond expectations of the ADP data has had a significant impact on the Fed's monetary policy expectations. Currently, the market's probability of a rate cut for the Federal Reserve in July is only 2%, while the probability of a rate cut for the Sept. 17 meeting rose from 60% before the data was released to 66%. The change reflects investors' rescaling of labor market resilience, but is also constrained by upcoming non-farm employment data. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that if Friday's non-farm data continues the strong momentum of ADP, the Federal Reserve may further postpone the time point of interest rate cuts, and even lower the expected annual rate cuts from 1.1 times to a lower level.

From the fundamentals, the ADP report reveals structural changes in the labor market. The construction and financial services sectors performed strongly, with 15,000 new jobs and 28,000 new jobs respectively, showing continued expansion in certain areas of the economy. However, the growth of employment in manufacturing slowed down, with only 7,000 people increasing, reflecting the potential impact of tariff remarks on some industries. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said recruitment and salary data show that the economy is still in a healthy state and employers’ confidence in consumer resilience is growing. This view is consistent with some institutional interpretations, and strong ADP and GDP data provide the Fed with greater policy space, which may delay interest rate cuts to observe further performance in inflation and employment.

However, the signal of a slowdown in the labor market cannot be ignored. Well-known surveys show that the proportion of consumers who believe that employment is "difficult to obtain" rose to the highest level in nearly four and a half years, and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits continued to increase in July. Retail traders traders point out ADP dataThe short-term positive for the labor market cannot conceal the overall slowdown trend. The market is closely monitoring the statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at a press conference on July 30 at 20:30, looking forward to whether it sends a signal of a rate cut in September. www.xmserving.compared with the data released, the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled down, and some investors have begun to bet that the Federal Reserve will maintain its "high interest rates for longer" stance to cope with potential inflationary pressures.

Changes in market sentiment: Optimism and prudence coexist

The release of ADP data has triggered www.xmserving.complex emotional changes in the market. The short-term pullback of the US dollar index reflects investors' brief optimism about economic resilience, but the moderate reaction of U.S. stock futures and the decline in gold show the market's cautious attitude towards long-term trends. In the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 futures rose slightly after the data was released, but failed to break through the recent high, showing that investors are waiting for the results of the Fed's policy meeting and further guidance on Friday's non-farm data. The gold market is under the dual pressure of the strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, and the demand for safe-haven aversion is weakened in the short term, but geopolitical factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine still provide potential support for gold prices.

Retail traders have particularly different emotions. Some retail traders believe that although the ADP data exceeds expectations, it has a low correlation with official non-farm data, and the market should pay more attention to Friday's non-farm report to judge the economic outlook. Other retail traders expressed concern about the short-term trend of gold, believing that the strength of the dollar may further suppress the gold price to below $3,200 per ounce. Institutions took a relatively neutral position, pointing out that the ADP data's exceeding expectations and the strong rebound in GDP have strengthened expectations of economic resilience, but the Fed's final decision still depends on the www.xmserving.combined performance of inflation and employment data.

In contrast, market sentiment before the data was released tends to be bearish and bullish gold. Investors generally expect ADP data to continue its weak performance in June, supporting the possibility of a rate cut in September. The exceeding expectations of ADP data broke this expectation, prompting the market to quickly adjust its positions, and the US dollar short cover pushed DXY's short rebound. Spot gold is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of expectations of interest rate cuts, and it is difficult to return to the high of $3,300 per ounce in the short term.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: ADP encounters market "Aesthetic fatigue"? 103,000 jobs only cause slight fluctuations". It is carefully www.xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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