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The dollar index continues to rise, waiting for Federal Reserve interest rate decision

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: The US dollar index continues to rise, waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On July 30, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.74. On Tuesday, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, a series of important economic data and the results of U.S. trade negotiations, the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, standing above the 99 mark during the session, hitting a five-week high, and finally closing up 0.26% to 98.89. The yields of US Treasury collectively fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 4.326%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 3.875%. Spot gold stopped falling four consecutive times, touching the $3330 mark for a time, but failed to stand firm and finally closed up 0.35%, closing at $3327.37/ounce; spot silver fluctuated sideways and finally closed up 0.08%, at $38.175/ounce. International crude oil rose sharply as Trump increased its pressure on Russia to reach a peace agreement and the global trade situation showed signs of easing. WTI crude oil once rose 4%, and finally closed up 3.31%, at $68.878 per barrel, the largest single-day increase since June 17; Brent crude oil once stood above the $70 mark and finally closed up 3.14%, at $71.61 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.74. The Fed is starting a two-day policy meeting as the dollar rises, and no policy changes are expected this week. However, traders are closely watching for upcoming labor market data and June www.xmserving.commodity trade reports, both of which will provide the basis for the second-quarter GDP data released later this week. Technically, the most recent resistance level of the US dollar index is at 99.20–99.40 range. A breakout above the 99.40 level will push the US dollar index toward the next resistance level 100.40–100.55.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1566. The EU-US trade deal pushed the dollar, suppressing the euro, with the euro/dollar recording a drop of more than 1.30% on Monday, the biggest since December 2024. Across the Atlantic, the lack of economic data has made the euro perform poorly, following the U.S.-EU trade deal. Traders awaiting growth data for German retail sales, Spain, Italy, Germany and the EU. In addition, traders are waiting for the release of HCOB manufacturing PMI, employment data and inflation data in Germany and the EU in Spain, Italy, Germany and the EU. Meanwhile, traders’ focus is on the Fed’s upcoming policy statement, which is expected to end on Wednesday. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains below 1.1550, it will move towards the support level of 1.1450–1.1465.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3365. The GBP/USD found some balance on Tuesday, temporarily stopping the continued decline, but still failed to break its continuous decline. The pair experienced an intraday technical rebound near the 1.3300 mark, with the foreign exchange market remaining cautious ahead of the latest Fed interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. There is little important data on the UK's economic calendar, which has forced pound traders to deal with the large amount of US data releases for the next trading week. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes above 1.3330, it will move towards the nearest resistance level 1.3370–1.3390.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

In the Asian session on Wednesday, gold hovered around 3330.80. . The rebound came after the gold price plummeted to around $3,302 on Monday (the lowest point since July 9), showing a quick switch in market sentiment. Behind this violent fluctuation is the struggle of multiple key factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is imminent, the Sino-US trade negotiations have entered a critical stage, and global risk aversion sentiment is fluctuating.

Technical: From the perspective of the daily gold chart, the Bollinger band trend shows a clear sideways consolidation pattern. The middle rail of the Bollinger band is located near $3338, and the price is currently in BollingerRunning below the middle track reflects a short-term weak trend. The Bollinger upper rail forms a key resistance around $3402, while the lower rail provides support around $3274, with the price range effectively limiting. Analysts believe that if the $3,270 mark breaks, it may open up a larger downward space. In terms of MACD indicators, the fast line (DIFF) remained at 2.77, while the slow line (DEA) was 7.22, and the double line continued to converge near the zero axis. The MACD bar chart is in the negative range, currently at -8.90, indicating that the short momentum has not yet weakened significantly. Analysts believe that if a golden cross cannot be achieved in the short term, gold prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels. The RSI indicator is currently at 45.27, which is in a neutral and weak area, indicating limited buying power. If the RSI further falls below 40, it means that the selling pressure may accelerate, and the previous low of $3,120 may be tested in the short term. Overall, analysis believes that gold prices rebounded from the low point of $2956 to the high of $3499, but after hitting $3451, the momentum gradually faded and is currently in a typical oscillating pullback stage, technically leaning towards short positions.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 68.78. Oil prices rose more than 3% on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump put more pressure on Russia over the Ukrainian war and optimism that the trade war between the U.S. and its major trading partners are waning. Supporting oil prices is also the trade agreement between the United States and the EU, which, while imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, avoided a full-scale trade war between the two major allies, as the trade war would affect nearly a third of global trade and bleak the outlook for fuel demand. For investors, the next 24 hours need to be focused on: the Federal Reserve's policy statement's hints about the possibility of a rate cut in September, Powell's press conference's assessment of the economic outlook, and the subsequent progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. In addition, we need to pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate resolution and the Bank of Canada's interest rate resolution, the second quarter GDP series of the United States and the July ADP employment data of the United States. The second quarter GDP data of Germany and the euro zone also need to be paid attention to.

Technical: Technically, WTI crude oil futures prices closed at a high level in their most recent day trading, supported by their trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50), providing positive momentum for attempting to break through the short-term weak downtrend line and attempting to break through the key resistance at $66.55. There is a cautious signal on the technical level, with the relative strength indicator (RSI) starting to form a negative signal after reaching an overbought level, which may limit the ability of the price to resume rising in the short term unless it is confirmed to break through this resistance level.

Forex market trading reminder on July 30, 2025

09:30 Australia's second quarter CPI annual rate

09:30 Australia's June weighted CPI-year rate

13:30France's annual GDP annual rate in the second quarter

15:00Swiss' leading indicator for July KOF economy

16:00Germany's second quarter unrevised GDP annual rate in the second quarter

16:00Swiss' July ZEW Investor Confidence Index

17:00Eurozone's second quarter GDP annual rate

17:00Eurozone's July Industrial and Economic Prosperity Index

20:15U.S. ADP employment in July

20:30U.S. real GDP annual rate in the second quarter

20:30U.S. real personal consumption expenditure quarter

20:30 The initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter

20:30 The U.S. Treasury Department released quarterly refinancing report

21:45 The Bank of Canada released interest rate resolution and monetary policy report

22:00 The monthly rate of the U.S. existing home signing sales index in June

22:30 The week from the U.S. to July 25

EIA Cushing crude oil inventories

The next day at 02:00 The next day at 02:00 The Federal Reserve FOMC announced interest rate resolution

The next day at 02:30 The next day at 02:30 The next day at 02:30 The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference

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The dollar index continues to rise, waiting for Federal Reserve interest rate decision

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Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

Forex market trading reminder on July 30, 2025

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

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CATEGORIES

News

market news

The dollar index continues to rise, waiting for Federal Reserve interest rate decision

Analysis of major currencies

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

Forex market trading reminder on July 30, 2025

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason