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market analysis
Gold does not break through 3405, and it will fall in a volatile manner!
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Gold does not break 3405, and it will fall volatilely!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Powell's biggest action is the inaction. The Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution in June has been settled, and the original interest rate remains unchanged, which is consistent with my expectations when I broadcast last night.
The Federal Reserve has been fighting against the Trump administration to show its "independence". Trump criticized Powell as a "idiot". The United States has collected $88 billion from tariffs, which has not triggered inflation. However, the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, and the interest rate on US bonds will remain high.
This time, the dot map of 19 Federal Reserve officials showed that 7 officials believed that interest rates will not be cut in 2025, 2 officials believed that interest rates will be cut once (25 basis points) in 2025, 8 officials believed that interest rates will be cut twice (25 basis points each time), and 2 officials believed that interest rates will be cut three times (75 basis points).
This time, the dot map camp obviously tends to cut interest rates twice this year, and only 12 of these 19 officials have the right to vote, 12 include 7 Federal Reserve officials + 1 person in the New York Permanent Voting www.xmserving.committee + 4 persons (11 regional rotating vote www.xmserving.committees).
In other words, only 12 people who have the power to affect the final result are unanimously agreed that interest rate cuts will be considered only when inflation meets expectations of 2%. There will be two opportunities for interest rate cuts in the second half of this year, which is good for gold, but the Federal Reserve does not rush to cut interest rates. This attitude directly affects gold's rapid decline in the early morning.
Powell ended his term in May 2026. During this period, he did not want to pay for Trump's crazy actions. It is his policy to seek victory in stability. Powell, I have always emphasized that he is a conservative, while Trump is a radical reformist. The two are www.xmserving.completely out of sync with the implementation of the policy.
So, short-term gold is still mainly fluctuating,Earnings are the general trend, it is just a matter of time. The current market fluctuations are more about long-short games, and there is no clear direction. Although the gold price has reached $3,400 in the early stage, it has been mainly based on corrections since this week. Further rises still require fundamentals to promote the overall direction. The general direction is bullish, but we should pay attention to the switching frequency of long-shorts at present.
Okay, let’s talk about the gold market today:
On Monday, the gold price opened high and it was out of "the sharp rise in the morning is difficult to continue, and the European session broke the bottom and the United States fell." Moreover, this mantra has been staged every day recently. Every morning, it opened high and does not continue to rise after the rebound. After the same rebound yesterday, I was in the "Gold Market Welcomes the "King Blast", and the June interest rate resolution will be announced! 》 clearly pointed out that we should not go long gold, and the area of rebounding 3392-95 is empty, using 3405 as the defensive position, and paying attention to 3366-68 below. This point has been repeatedly mentioned during the live broadcast last night.
In addition, this morning, 3370 was also the starting point of 3388, and then returned to the starting point of 3370. Today, the focus is on the loss of the 3370 position. Once it is lost, the morning rebound is to lure long, which is to fool bulls people to buy on dips, and the short selling point is only the area of rebounding 3390-95. Why put it here? Because we need to consider the stop loss point 3405, otherwise the profit-loss ratio is not cost-effective, and the other is the rebound after breaking the level of 3370-68.
One hour, I quickly pulled up in the morning and then fell back. The overall position continued to move downward at the 3405 high point, and the low point was lost. The overall market was still weak and fluctuating (intraday). For the current leverage trading, you must grasp the position. The position determines the confidence. It is very uncomfortable to chase the volatile market. Today, focus on the loss of US$3370. The position above determines the long and short position is 3405. This place will continue to watch the oscillating decline before there is no break.
Today, I think there are two positions that can be short gold. One is the 3370-68 breaks and the other is the area where the rebound is 3390-95. Don’t consider the other positions for now. Use 3370 as the defender to see a small-scale rebound. There are opportunities for bulls and bears in the market. The key is position, position, position or position, and position determines confidence!
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Gold does not break 3405, it will fall volatilely!". It was carefully www.xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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