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UK GDP in April shrank by 0.4% month-on-month, down for the first time in half a year
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: UK's GDP in April shrinks by 0.4% month-on-month, declining for the first time in half a year." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM: UK's GDP in April shrank by 0.4% month-on-month, declining for the first time in half a year
According to data released by the UK's Bureau of Statistics, the UK's GDP growth rate in April was -0.3%, with the previous value of 0.2%, a decline for the first time in half a year, with the decline reaching the largest since October 2023. According to classification, the UK's service industry output contracted significantly, reaching -0.4%, which is the main factor dragging down GDP. The second is manufacturing (-0.9%), electricity, gas, etc. By contrast, the UK's construction industry showed strong resilience, with output rising by 0.9%.
▲XM chart
After the release of the UK GDP data, GBPUSD fluctuated violently in the short term. From 14:00 to 14:05 Beijing time, GBPUSD fell from 1.3587 to 1.3564, a drop of 23 basis points. In the second five minutes, GBPUSD continued to decline, but the decline narrowed significantly. Starting from the third five minutes, the market entered a state of autonomous fluctuation, and the impact of data release became less and less. Judging from the trend of data release that led to the decline of GBPUSD, the weakness of GDP has seriously impacted market participants' confidence in the pound. As of the end of the European session, GBPUSD was in a downward state and showed no signs of stabilization.
▲XM chart
Since this year, like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has been suspending interest rate cuts. Soft GD in AprilP data may stimulate the Bank of England to restart interest rate cuts earlier. In terms of the bond market, the one-month UK Treasury yield is 4.32%, the three-month UK Treasury yield is 4.3%, and the long-term Treasury yield is lower than the short term, which means that the Bank of England will restart interest rate cuts between 1 and 3 months. The steady decline in the six-month and one-year British bond yields means that after the Bank of England restarts interest rate cuts, it will not enter a state of suspension of interest rate cuts again, but will continue to lower interest rates.
From the perspective of monetary policy, if the Bank of England is forced to reduce interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve, the pound will suffer a negative impact. The GBPUSD daily level is in a medium-term bullish trend, but it has shown the characteristics of building a high-level top since May 26th. Although the US dollar index has a significant short trend during the same period, if it can stabilize at the 98 mark, it may rebound significantly in the future.
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