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Gold falls back on schedule for four-hour resistance under pressure, Europe and the United States pay attention to daily breaking performance
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold falls back on four-hour resistance as scheduled, and Europe and the United States pay attention to the daily breaking performance." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Macro
Gold prices rise, which are affected by factors such as the US dollar index, economic data, and geopolitics. The dollar index fell 0.2%, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, stimulating buying to drive gold prices rebound, while the dollar's weakness stems from changes in market momentum brought by Sino-US trade negotiations and employment data.
Global economic uncertainty highlights the safe-haven nature of gold, and the results of Sino-US trade negotiations have significant impact: positive progress has been made and short-term pressure on gold prices, and long-term demand is still supported due to the subsequent impact of the trade war. In terms of inflation expectations, the market expects the US core CPI to rise by 2.9% year-on-year. Inflation data and Federal Reserve monetary policy influence the short-term fluctuations of gold prices, and long-term risk aversion demand remains strong.
In addition, the continuous increase in China's central bank's gold reserves may drive emerging market countries to follow suit and increase global demand; geopolitical conflicts in the United States have aggravated market uncertainty and prompted investors to turn to gold. Changes in yields in the U.S. bond market reflect market cautious attitude, and the results of Treasury bond bidding will also indirectly affect gold prices. Overall, multiple factors drive gold prices to rise, with short-term focus on trade negotiations and CPI data, and long-term support factors are stable.
Dollar Index
In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a downward trend on Monday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 99.203 on the day, and fell to 98.79 at the lowest, and finally closed at 98.986. Looking back at the market performance on Monday, the price was under pressure and corrected in the short term during the early trading session, mainly in the first test of the daily resistance area last Friday. The pressure on the Asian session was corrected to the end of the European session, and the position just reached four-hour support. It rose again after the European session. Although there was some pressure in the evening,And the negative line ended in the end. The current performance is a rebound and oscillation after reaching resistance. We need to pay attention to further upward breakthroughs in the future.
From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 100.80 area of resistance at the weekly level, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 99.20 as time goes by. It is important to pay attention to whether the price can stabilize the daily resistance. At the same time, the price fell back twice yesterday in four hours. As time goes by, yesterday's low point has become the key. The price continues to be long in the short term above, and the above is paying attention to breakthrough performance. From an hour's perspective, we need to pay attention to upward performance. Yesterday, bulls and bulls can continue to wait, and those without layout can continue to make layouts.
The US dollar index continued to hold the 98.80-90 range yesterday, with a target of 99.20-99.40-99.60
Gold
In terms of gold, the overall gold price on Monday showed a correction. The price rose to the highest point of 3338.09 on the day, and fell to the lowest point of 3293.6 on the spot, and closed at 3325.41 on the spot. Regarding the continuous decline in gold prices during the early trading session on Monday, and then hit a key position, we emphasized yesterday that the 3290 position is the key support. At this point, we need to pay attention to the market adjustment before under pressure. We will continue to correct the 3330-3340 area we mentioned in the day. We are under pressure as expected. We will pay attention to the further falling below the 3290 position and test the weekly support area of 3217-3220 area.
From multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price runs at the rhythm in May as the author said, and the final cross state. For June, the long-term watershed is at 2780. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3217-3220 area. So from the perspective of the mid-term, it is still in the mid-term bull market, but we need to pay attention to the subsequent retracement and follow-up gains and losses. Once the price breaks the weekly support, it will be further under pressure. From the daily level, the price fell below the daily watershed 3330 last Friday. Yesterday, the market closed down to the bottom of this position, so the overall market is still short-term, and it is currently in the stage of breaking and retracing back to continue to exert force. Everyone must pay attention to the market rhythm. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, you need to pay attention to the near today's high point in the morning. The price can be kept under pressure below the high point in the morning. From the first hour, it is also a downward trend. The subsequent focus will continue. After the price breaks below the 3290 position, it will reach the 3250-3220 area. The short orders laid out yesterday can be held, and those without layout can be arranged continuously.
Gold continued to hold short positions in the area of 3330-3340 yesterday, with a target of 3290-3250-3220
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and American
European and Chinese
European and Chinese
Analysis: From the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported at 1.0850, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the support of the 1.1200 area, and from the perspective of the midline, the price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the rise of the midline. From the daily level, as time goes by, it is temporarily necessary to focus on the gains and losses of the 1.1370 area. This position determines the key to the trend trend. At the same time, the trend line support below the 1.1340 area is also a support that needs to be paid attention to, so the subsequent focus is on the trend line support and the daily support range fall below. According to the four-hour level, we need to pay attention to the resistance of the 1.1420-30 area. Yesterday, the bears in this area can continue to hold, waiting for further pressure performance in the market.
Europe and the United States yesterday held a short holding in the range of 1.1420-30, with a target of 1.1370-1.1340
[Finance data and events that are focused today] Tuesday, June 10, 2025
①14:00 UK three-month ILO unemployment rate in April
②14:00 UK May unemployment rate
③14:00 UK May unemployment rate
④15:00 Switzerland May consumer confidence index
⑤16:30 Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence index
⑥18:00 The US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index in May
⑦ 00:00 the next day EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report
⑧ 04:30 the next day the US to June 6 API crude oil inventories
Note: The above is only personal opinion and strategy, for reference and www.xmserving.communication only, and does not give customers any investment advice. It has nothing to do with customers' investment, and it is not used as a basis for placing an order.
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