Oil prices hit two-week lowest, safe-haven demand decreases Gold prices remain stable around 3310 OPEC+ production increase concerns

Basic news

On Wednesday (April 30, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3312. As the signal of easing trade tensions reduced some safe-haven demand. Purchase prices have remained stable around 3310 recently, and investors are waiting for this week's key economic data to judge the Fed's policy outlook; U.S. crude oil trading was $60.26 per barrel, and U.S. oil fell nearly 3% on Tuesday, hitting a two-week low. Investors are worried that OPEC+ will increase production, and tariffs from U.S. President Trump will hit the global economy and slow oil demand.

Focus on the day

There are many data during the day, and China's PMI data and Germany's retail and unemployment data will also be released.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed strongly higher on Tuesday, with intraday trading fluctuating, and tug-of-war in the flat market, investors assessed the latest round of changes in corporate financial reports, economic data and trade policies.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent hinted that trade deals with other countries such as Japan and India have made progress. Trump signed an executive order before Tuesday's closing, providing automakers with tariff deductions up to 15% of the total value of their domestic assembled cars. These deductions can be used to offset the value of imported parts, thereby buying time for automakers to transfer the supply chain back to the country. Automakers have little reaction to the news. General Motors closed down 0.6% after the www.xmserving.company reported strong quarterly results but withdrew its annual financial forecast.

Honeywell rose 5.4% after reporting adjusted profit growth in the first quarter, while paint maker Sherry Sherry Bill jumped 4.8% after quarterly profit exceeded expectations. The two are brought to the Blue Chip DowVibrate. Dow Jones Industrial Average www.xmserving.companies Coca-Cola's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and its share price closed up 0.8%.

Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said: "Many economic data will be mixed, and it may be really difficult to identify the impact of tariffs in the next month or two. Corporate profits, www.xmserving.companies that are most affected by tariffs, are doing what we expect, and they are lowering their financial forecasts or suspending their financial forecasts."

Economic data show that the U.S. www.xmserving.commodity trade deficit widened to record levels in March, and www.xmserving.companies vigorously imported before President Trump's full tariffs take effect. According to a report by the World Enterprise Research Institute, its U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its lowest since May 2020, while the number of job openings shows that the labor market is relatively stable.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75% to 40,527.62 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 5,560.83 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.55% to 17,461.32 points.

More economic data will be released this week, with key government jobs reports set to be released on Friday, while several www.xmserving.companies in the "technology Seven" such as Apple and Microsoft will also release financial reports, and investors may pay attention to signs of tariff impact.

United Packages fell 0.4% after quarterly earnings and said it would lay off 20,000 employees as the www.xmserving.company would reduce delivery to Amazon.

While the three major stock indexes are still below the level at the end of last year, stocks have shown signs of stabilization in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 rising for the sixth consecutive trading day, the longest record of consecutive gains since the seven consecutive days of gains in November.

HSBC became the latest broker to lower its S&P 500 index's end-of-year target, lowering it from the previous 6,700 points to 5,600 points. Wells Fargo shares rose 2.4% after announcing a stock buyback program of up to $40 billion. Gold fell nearly 1% on Tuesday as signals of easing trade tensions reduced some safe-haven demand, while investors were awaiting key economic data for the week to judge the Fed's policy outlook.

Spot gold was $3315.84 per ounce, down 0.8%. U.S. gold futures closed down 0.4% to $3333.6.

David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures, said: "There is some optimism that the trade war will ease." Officials say President Trump's administration plans to mitigate the impact of auto tariffs by reducing taxes on foreign parts used in U.S.-made cars and ensuring imported cars are not subject to multiple tariffs.

The easing of trade tensions has led to a sell-off in safe-haven gold, a traditional value-preserving tool to hedge against rising global instability. Last week, gold hit $3,500.05 per ounce in an unprecedented rise.A record high.

Investors are now paying attention to a series of important U.S. economic data this week, including Wednesday’s personal consumption expenditure price index and Friday’s monthly non-farm employment report.

Spot silver fell 0.4% to $33.02 per ounce; platinum fell about 1% to $976.50; palladium fell 1.3% to $936.41. Oil market

Oil prices fell about 3% on Tuesday, hitting their two-week lows, with investors worried that OPEC+ will increase production and that tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump will hit the global economy and slow oil demand.

Brent crude oil futures fell 2.4%, with a settlement price of $64.25 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 2.6% to settle at $60.42. Both indicators hit the lowest settlement price since April 10.

A Reuters survey shows that most economists surveyed believe Trump's radical tariffs on U.S. imported products are likely to plunge the global economy into recession this year.

China, which was hit by the toughest tariffs, has also imposed tariffs on U.S. imported products, and the two world's largest oil consumers are trapped in a trade war. Analysts significantly lowered their forecasts for oil demand and prices.

The U.S. www.xmserving.commodity trade deficit widened to record levels in March, and www.xmserving.companies vigorously imported before President Trump's full tariffs came into effect, suggesting that trade caused a huge drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

The impact of Trump's trade war echoed further in the business www.xmserving.community on Tuesday, with courier giant United parcel saying it would lay off 20,000 employees to reduce costs, and General Motors withdrew its outlook and postponed its investor call to Thursday, awaiting possible changes in trade policy.

Several OPEC+ member states will recommend accelerating production growth for the second straight month in June, sources told Reuters last week.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar rose Tuesday, amid the Trump administration's plan to ease the blow to local automakers by auto tariffs and the prospect of the U.S. struck more tariff agreements with some trading partners. The dollar also benefited from a late-month buying, and investors sought to rebalance their portfolios after President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs that resulted in a massive sell-off in U.S. stocks and bonds in April.

Trump will issue an executive order on Tuesday to www.xmserving.combine tariff deductions with tariff reductions on other parts and materials to ease the impact of auto tariffs, after automakers put pressure on the government.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said on Tuesday that the government is making substantial progress in tariff negotiations, noting that an agreement will be reached with India and South Korea, which has boosted the dollar. He said he will meet with at least 17 trading partners in the www.xmserving.coming weeks.

U.S. www.xmserving.commerce Secretary Lutnik said on Tuesday that the Trump administration has reached a trade agreement and is waiting for approval by relevant countries before it is announced.

In afternoon trading, the US dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 142.22, rose four days in the past six trading days. However, the dollar fell more than 5% against the yen this month, marking its biggest monthly decline since July 2024.

Vassili Serebriakov, foreign exchange strategist at UBS Group, said: "This is related to tariff reductions to a certain extent, such as the reduction of tariffs on auto parts. The US dollar has also often performed better when the stock market has risen recently, so this may be one of the reasons. But I will not explain it too much. We are almost the end of the month. For the purpose of rebalancing, there may be some US dollar buying."

The US dollar has also risen against the euro. The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1395, but rose 5.3% in April, which will mark its biggest monthly gain since November 2022.

Investors are also concerned about the lack of progress in easing trade conflicts. The dollar rose 0.6% against the Swiss franc to 0.8239. However, the dollar fell nearly 7% against the Swiss franc in April, which will be the biggest monthly decline since January 2015. In addition to trade, investors are also paying attention to a large amount of U.S. data this week. The latest U.S. employment report, initial economic growth for the first quarter and core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) data will be the main drivers of the market. PCE is the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve.

Tues on Tuesday highlighted the gradual decline in the economy. U.S. job openings dropped sharply in March, but layoffs decreased, suggesting that the labor market remains solid despite changing tariffs casting a shadow on the economy. Affected by tariff concerns, SJIC's U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in April.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.1% against the US dollar to 1.3843 Canadian dollars. Canadian Prime Minister Carney led the Liberal Party won the election on Monday but failed to meet the majority government he hoped.

International News

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party will form a minority government

On April 29, local time, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party will form a minority government. After a long count of votes, the Liberal Party won 169 seats, the Conservative Party won 144 seats, the Quebec Party caucus 22 seats, the New Democratic Party 7 seats, and the Green Party 1 seat. In the early morning of April 29 local time, the current Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who led the Canadian Liberal Party to win the 45th House of Representatives election in Canada, delivered a speech and announced his victory.

The White House says Trump is confident of signing a mineral agreement. The United States and Ukraine are reportedly finalized as soon as this week.

The White House said that US President Donald Trump is "confident" to sign a key mineral agreement with Ukraine. This move may enhance US support for Kiev. Trump is frustrated that Ukraine and Russia's ceasefire negotiations have been fruitless. "This will not only help the U.S. recover the billions of dollars of taxes we spend and localize control of some of the key minerals, but also for the Ukrainian people to rebuild their homes after the conflict ends," White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters on Tuesday.Help. "He hopes Ukraine will sign the agreement and is confident they will sign it," she added. "A person familiar with the matter revealed that the goal of the U.S. and Ukraine negotiators is to sign a mineral agreement as soon as this week, which will regulate the development of mineral resources and infrastructure reconstruction of Ukraine after the war.

Trump plans to use AI chips as a new bargaining chip in trade negotiations

Three people familiar with the matter said that the Trump administration is working to change a Biden-era rule that restricts countries from accessing artificial intelligence chips, potential changes include the cancellation of the division of different countries around the world into several levels to help determine how many advanced semiconductors a country can obtain. Sources said the plans are still under discussion and warned that this may change. But if implemented, this could be a matter of using U.S. chips as a trade negotiation. More powerful negotiation tools open the door. Previous regulations were released in January this year to divide the right to use cutting-edge artificial intelligence chips and control the weight of certain models to keep the most advanced www.xmserving.computing power in the United States and its allies. Currently, the rule divides the world into three levels. Sources said that Trump administration officials are considering abandoning the stratified access method in the rule and replacing it with a global licensing system of intergovernmental agreements.

German inflation pushes poverty levels and lives under pressure

The German Equal Welfare Federation's annual report released on April 29 local time showed that the high inflation faced by Germany in 2024 further aggravated social poverty, the size of the poor has expanded, and some groups have lived Conditions continue to deteriorate. The report pointed out that the poverty rate in Germany rose to 15.5% in 2024, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year, which is equivalent to about 13 million people living below the poverty line in the country. Among them, single-parent families, young people and female elderly people are particularly affected. At the same time, there are obvious differences in poverty among German federal states. The poverty rates in Bremen, Saxony-Anhalt, North Rhine-Westphalia and other places are significantly higher than the national average. In Bremen, nearly a quarter of the population lives below the poverty line. According to the report, more than 5 million people in Germany are still in a state of "severe material scarcity" and are difficult to afford the living needs such as heating and basic clothing replacement.

India suggests that There is an opportunity to achieve win-win results in trade negotiations with the United States

As India and the United States gradually approach finalizing the content of the first trade agreement before this fall, India hints at the possibility of achieving "early win-win results". A delegation led by India's chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal went to Washington last week to advance discussions on the trade agreement. The Indian Ministry of www.xmserving.commerce and Industry said in a statement on Tuesday that the two sides discussed the roadmap of "reaching a mutually beneficial, multi-sector bilateral trade agreement by the fall of 2025", which includes achieving this goal through early win-win opportunities.

U.S. consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in nearly five years.

U.S.Consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in April, with Trump's tariffs escalating concerns about the economy and employment. Data released by the World Federation of Large Enterprises on Tuesday showed that the consumer confidence index fell nearly 8 points to 86, the lowest since May 2020, and was inferior to the 88 forecast by Bloomberg survey economists. This is also the fifth consecutive month of decline in the index, the longest consecutive decline since 2008. The expected indicators for measuring outlook for the next six months fell to the lowest since 2011, and the status quo has also declined. The agency’s data is consistent with trends in consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, reflecting growing concerns that high tariffs will damage the economy and employment while driving up prices.

U.S. Secretary of www.xmserving.commerce: All cars made in the United States can enjoy tariff reductions

U.S. Secretary of www.xmserving.commerce Lutnik said that U.S.-made automakers will receive a 15% deduction based on the value of these cars when importing parts; all cars that have been assembled in the United States and contain 85% of local parts will be exempt from tariffs. He said this will help domestic automakers move their supply chains to the United States. All vehicles manufactured in the United States are subject to tariff reductions; tariffs will apply to foreign automakers that produce cars in the United States. The tariff reduction will be implemented gradually in three years to allow automakers to establish supply chains in the United States.

The problem of ground subsidence is prominent. The Iranian president even proposed the idea of ​​"moving the capital"

It is reported that due to drought, climate change and poor water resource management, Iran has long faced land subsidence problems and is one of the countries with the most severe ground subsidence in the world. This problem is becoming increasingly serious, endangering important infrastructure and public safety. In urban areas and surrounding areas, including Tehran, the situation is particularly urgent, with cracks on the ground that have damaged nearby railway tracks and the structure of the houses becoming unstable, and the Iranian president has even proposed the idea of ​​moving the capital in recent months.

Domestic News

Policy favorable policies boost confidence Private investment gradually recovered

In the first quarter, my country's private investment increased by 0.4% year-on-year, among which private investment in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors increased by 9.7% and 9.3% respectively, outperforming the average level of various fields, showing that a series of policy favorable policies are transforming into real confidence in development. Experts believe that as policies such as breaking market access barriers and regulating charging behaviors involving enterprises continue to be implemented and effective, policy synergy to support the development of private enterprises is gathering, which will help consolidate the positive trend of private investment recovery.

May Day "Farewell" has heated up the long holiday, and it is difficult to find a room for popular hotels and homestays

As the May Day Golden Week approaches, the tourism market has increased significantly, and hotels and homestays in various places have also ushered in a peak in booking. Data from many hotels, homestays and online travel platforms show that this year's May Day has led to the rise of "fare-fighting" models such as "please take 4 on 10" before the festival and "please take 4 on 11" after the festival, which has given birth to "extra-long holidays" and "long-term tours". Hotels and homestays near many popular tourist cities and tourist attractions have been "one.Houses are hard to find." Qunar data shows that the number of bookings on the platform this year's "May Day" early bird (travel dates are April 25-April 29) increased by 30% year-on-year. Meituan Travel data shows that the popularity of air tickets and hotel bookings in the week after May 12 this year's "May Day" Festival increased by 90% year-on-year, showing the driving effect of 11-day "fake-making" on cultural and tourism consumption.

The above content is about "【XM Group】: Oil prices hit the lowest in two weeks, the demand for safe-haven, and the gold price remained stable around 3310. OPEC+ worry about increasing production" was carefully www.xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thank you for your support!

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